Rank 04 · 2026 race
Lionel Messi
Inter Miami · Argentina · Forward
Real-data provisional ranking
Every displayed component is computed from current API-Football fixture, event, player-stat, standings, and pre-match Elo evidence. The ranking remains provisional—not illustrative—until the locked 2024–2025 historical holdout gate is complete.
#4 in the index
No change since the previous snapshot
Explanation
Lionel Messi ranks #4 on 78.4. Role output is the strongest relative component; Team performance & achievements is the clearest constraint. This temporary deterministic explanation will be replaced by the build-time AI Gateway pass.
Why the rank moved
This is the first real-data snapshot, so no ranking movement is claimed.
Jury context
Football case vs. vote environment.
This research layer estimates visibility and recognition around the journalist ballot. It never changes the player’s 100-point football merit score.
Context
0.0 / 10
Vote forecast
Held
context incomplete
Collective & tournament narrative
0.0 / 3Collective & tournament narrative is unavailable and no vote forecast is published; NinetyIQ does not impute popularity.
Empirical position prior
0.0 / 2Empirical position prior is unavailable and no vote forecast is published; NinetyIQ does not impute popularity.
Club & league visibility
0.0 / 1Club & league visibility is unavailable and no vote forecast is published; NinetyIQ does not impute popularity.
Recognition & aura
0.0 / 1.5Recognition & aura is unavailable and no vote forecast is published; NinetyIQ does not impute popularity.
Media momentum
0.0 / 2.5Media momentum is unavailable and no vote forecast is published; NinetyIQ does not impute popularity.
The v0.3 vote forecast is calibration-held. No fixed context blend is active, prediction markets remain an external benchmark, and the LLM cannot add points or move a player.
Audited intelligence
Logic and nuance, without hidden points.
No audited shortlist, market, or reporting evidence is attached.
Shortlist
No audited shortlist evidence is attached to this build.
Prediction markets
No audited prediction-market evidence is attached to this build.
Uncertainty
Only the deterministic football merit decomposition is available.
Deterministic fallback · AI generation pending
Score waterfall
Base → nine components → 78.4
Each bar adds its published contribution. The final bar must equal the exact sum of the components or the build fails.
Full decomposition
Every point, in one sentence.
Role output
Role output is the 100th role-cohort percentile from 4 disclosed metric families (100% weight coverage).
How this was calculated
weighted mean of position-specific metric percentiles; raw action rates use frozen pre-match field-strength adjustment and ratios use empirical-Bayes shrinkage
Source: API-Football embedded player-fixture statistics
Evidence: 38 observations · 100% coverage
non-penalty goals per 90
0.952
non-penalty goals
36
assists per 90
0.748
assists
28.274
• API-Football opaque player ratings are excluded.
• Rates and totals are compared only within the same position.
• Positive actions receive a disclosed 0.85–1.15 field-strength scalar derived from frozen pre-match Elo.
17.9 / 18
Creation & progression
Creation & progression is the 96th role-cohort percentile from 4 disclosed metric families (100% weight coverage).
How this was calculated
weighted mean of position-specific metric percentiles; raw action rates use frozen pre-match field-strength adjustment and ratios use empirical-Bayes shrinkage
Source: API-Football embedded player-fixture statistics
Evidence: 38 observations · 100% coverage
key passes per 90
3.581
successful dribbles per 90
2.748
assists per 90
0.748
accurate passes per 90
37.484
• API-Football opaque player ratings are excluded.
• Rates and totals are compared only within the same position.
• Positive actions receive a disclosed 0.85–1.15 field-strength scalar derived from frozen pre-match Elo.
11.5 / 12
All-round role contribution
All-round role contribution is the 69th role-cohort percentile from 4 disclosed metric families (100% weight coverage).
How this was calculated
weighted mean of position-specific metric percentiles; raw action rates use frozen pre-match field-strength adjustment and ratios use empirical-Bayes shrinkage
Source: API-Football embedded player-fixture statistics
Evidence: 38 observations · 100% coverage
duels won per 90
5.745
duel success
0.496
successful dribbles per 90
2.748
fouls drawn per 90
1.854
• API-Football opaque player ratings are excluded.
• Rates and totals are compared only within the same position.
• Positive actions receive a disclosed 0.85–1.15 field-strength scalar derived from frozen pre-match Elo.
6.9 / 10
Efficiency & execution
Efficiency & execution is the 91st role-cohort percentile from 4 disclosed metric families (100% weight coverage).
How this was calculated
weighted mean of position-specific metric percentiles; raw action rates use frozen pre-match field-strength adjustment and ratios use empirical-Bayes shrinkage
Source: API-Football embedded player-fixture statistics
Evidence: 38 observations · 100% coverage
non-penalty conversion
0.228
shot accuracy
0.619
dribble success
0.512
pass completion
0.806
• API-Football opaque player ratings are excluded.
• Rates and totals are compared only within the same position.
• Positive actions receive a disclosed 0.85–1.15 field-strength scalar derived from frozen pre-match Elo.
7.3 / 8
Availability & consistency
Availability combines 3403 minutes (86% of team opportunity), 38 appearances, and 76% smooth consistency credit.
How this was calculated
60% minutes share + 15% appearance share + 10% start share + 15% smooth 30+ minute match-impact consistency
Source: API-Football fixture participation and team schedules
Evidence: 38 observations · 100% coverage
minutes
3403 minutes
minutes share
0.859
appearance share
0.884
consistency share
0.762
• Opportunity is calculated within each represented team-season-competition.
• Consistency uses unshrunk match impact and a smooth 0.40–0.60 credit curve instead of a noisy hard threshold.
5.9 / 7
Strong-opposition performance
Against opponents at or above the 75th pre-match Elo percentile: 7 appearances, 706 minutes, and 60th role-impact percentile.
How this was calculated
80% minutes-weighted role impact + 20% capped 900-minute volume
Source: API-Football player-fixture statistics plus NinetyIQ leak-free pre-match Elo
Evidence: 7 observations · 100% coverage
strong-opposition matches
7
minutes
706 minutes
mean role impact
0.597
• Opponent strength is frozen before kickoff.
• API-Football opaque player ratings are excluded.
5.2 / 8
Knockout & final impact
Knockout credit uses 5 appearances and 540 minutes, weighted by both stage and competition prestige.
How this was calculated
75% stage-, prestige-, and minutes-weighted role impact + 25% capped 900-minute prestige volume
Source: API-Football player-fixture statistics plus NinetyIQ leak-free pre-match Elo
Evidence: 5 observations · 100% coverage
knockout matches
5
minutes
540 minutes
mean role impact
0.647
• Opponent strength is frozen before kickoff.
• API-Football opaque player ratings are excluded.
6.9 / 10
Match-swinging contribution
Match-state events produce 17.43 leverage units from 58 goal/assist/penalty events; untimed role actions in high-uncertainty fixtures add a 98th-percentile proxy.
How this was calculated
80% expected-points-added goal/assist leverage (60% volume, 40% rate) + 20% position-specific high-uncertainty action proxy
Source: API-Football event timelines and player-fixture statistics
Evidence: 58 observations · 100% coverage
event leverage
17.433
score-changing event actions
58
contextual action percentile
0.981
• Goal leverage is the change in expected points from frozen pre-match Elo, live score, and match clock.
• API-Football lacks timestamped defensive actions; their competitive-fixture action rate is a disclosed 20% proxy.
6.8 / 7
Team performance & achievements
Team credit: FIFA World Cup runner up (0.95 credit); Major League Soccer 2025 third (0.08 credit). Diminishing-return evidence is 1.00 against the disclosed 2.00 ceiling.
How this was calculated
finish × prestige × route × participation × importance; credits then receive 1.0/0.6/0.3/0.1 diminishing weights
Source: API-Football standings, tournament results, player minutes, role impact, and pre-match Elo
Evidence: 3 observations · 100% coverage
FIFA World Cup
0.952
Major League Soccer 2025
0.081
• Evidence is normalized to a 2.00 ceiling.
• Team success is not awarded equally to every squad member.
• Starting semi-finals and finals increases importance; bench status therefore reduces trophy credit.
10.0 / 20