90NinetyIQ
2026 race · real-data preview

The Ballon d’Or race, explained.

No black box. No unexplained verdict. The Ballon d’Or Index turns every candidate into a transparent 100-point case you can inspect, compare, and challenge.

Current merit leader

Pedri

Barcelona · Midfielder

82.6
Individual47.3 / 55
Decisive18.2 / 25
Team17.1 / 20
Vote forecastHeld
Why this score?

Real-data provisional ranking

Every displayed component is computed from current API-Football fixture, event, player-stat, standings, and pre-match Elo evidence. The ranking remains provisional—not illustrative—until the locked 2024–2025 historical holdout gate is complete.

As of 2026-07-19

Individual performance

55 pts

Position-specific output, creation, all-round contribution, execution, availability, and consistency from real match data.

Decisive moments

25 pts

Performance against strong pre-match Elo opponents, in knockout rounds, and in verified score-changing situations.

Team achievements

20 pts

Verified finishes allocated by competition prestige, route, participation, and within-team importance.

The index

Every point has a reason.

Select a candidate to inspect all nine merit components and the separate jury-context forecast. The three color bands always map to the published 55 / 25 / 20 football methodology.

01
82.6

Pedri

Barcelona · Spain · Midfielder

Individual47.3 / 55
Decisive18.2 / 25
Team17.1 / 20

Held

no context

02
82.3

Lamine Yamal

Barcelona · Spain · Midfielder

Individual46.3 / 55
Decisive18.7 / 25
Team17.3 / 20

Held

no context

03
81.8

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia

Paris Saint Germain · Georgia · Forward

Individual47.6 / 55
Decisive18.8 / 25
Team15.4 / 20

Held

no context

04
78.7

Michael Olise

Bayern München · France · Midfielder

Individual46.7 / 55
Decisive19.5 / 25
Team12.5 / 20

Held

no context

05
77.5

Lionel Messi

Club data outside current coverage · Argentina · Forward

Individual49.1 / 55
Decisive19.7 / 25
Team8.7 / 20

Held

no context

06
77.2

Désiré Doué

Paris Saint Germain · France · Forward

Individual45.2 / 55
Decisive18.0 / 25
Team14.0 / 20

Held

no context

07
73.5

Dani Olmo

Barcelona · Spain · Midfielder

Individual40.5 / 55
Decisive17.2 / 25
Team15.8 / 20

Held

no context

08
73.2

Harry Kane

Bayern München · England · Forward

Individual44.7 / 55
Decisive17.2 / 25
Team11.3 / 20

Held

no context

09
72.0

Declan Rice

Arsenal · England · Midfielder

Individual41.0 / 55
Decisive16.7 / 25
Team14.3 / 20

Held

no context

10
71.4

Ousmane Dembélé

Paris Saint Germain · France · Forward

Individual41.8 / 55
Decisive17.1 / 25
Team12.5 / 20

Held

no context

11
71.3

Vitinha

Paris Saint Germain · Portugal · Midfielder

Individual39.2 / 55
Decisive16.1 / 25
Team16.0 / 20

Held

no context

12
70.9

Bradley Barcola

Paris Saint Germain · France · Forward

Individual40.5 / 55
Decisive16.6 / 25
Team13.8 / 20

Held

no context

13
70.6

Bukayo Saka

Arsenal · England · Forward

Individual43.2 / 55
Decisive16.4 / 25
Team11.0 / 20

Held

no context

14
70.2

Cristian Romero

Tottenham · Argentina · Defender

Individual42.3 / 55
Decisive18.7 / 25
Team9.2 / 20

Held

no context

15
70.0

Joshua Kimmich

Bayern München · Germany · Midfielder

Individual41.8 / 55
Decisive17.7 / 25
Team10.5 / 20

Held

no context

16
69.7

Jude Bellingham

Real Madrid · England · Midfielder

Individual45.0 / 55
Decisive17.7 / 25
Team7.0 / 20

Held

no context

17
69.5

Kylian Mbappé

Real Madrid · France · Forward

Individual44.0 / 55
Decisive18.2 / 25
Team7.3 / 20

Held

no context

18
69.5

Luis Díaz

Bayern München · Colombia · Midfielder

Individual41.4 / 55
Decisive17.6 / 25
Team10.5 / 20

Held

no context

19
69.0

Nuno Mendes

Paris Saint Germain · Portugal · Defender

Individual35.2 / 55
Decisive18.0 / 25
Team15.8 / 20

Held

no context

20
69.0

Willian Pacho

Paris Saint Germain · Ecuador · Defender

Individual36.7 / 55
Decisive16.4 / 25
Team15.9 / 20

Held

no context

21
68.9

João Neves

Paris Saint Germain · Portugal · Midfielder

Individual36.7 / 55
Decisive17.3 / 25
Team14.9 / 20

Held

no context

22
66.5

Arda Güler

Real Madrid · Türkiye · Midfielder

Individual45.1 / 55
Decisive17.6 / 25
Team3.8 / 20

Held

no context

23
66.1

Warren Zaïre-Emery

Paris Saint Germain · France · Midfielder

Individual35.4 / 55
Decisive15.3 / 25
Team15.4 / 20

Held

no context

24
65.7

Vinicius Júnior

Real Madrid · Brazil · Forward

Individual44.4 / 55
Decisive17.2 / 25
Team4.1 / 20

Held

no context

25
65.6

Jules Koundé

Barcelona · France · Defender

Individual37.7 / 55
Decisive17.2 / 25
Team10.7 / 20

Held

no context

26
65.6

Rodri

Manchester City · Spain · Midfielder

Individual33.9 / 55
Decisive16.9 / 25
Team14.8 / 20

Held

no context

27
65.4

Elliot Anderson

Nottingham Forest · Scotland · Midfielder

Individual43.0 / 55
Decisive17.0 / 25
Team5.4 / 20

Held

no context

28
65.3

Lautaro Martínez

Inter · Argentina · Forward

Individual41.2 / 55
Decisive15.0 / 25
Team9.1 / 20

Held

no context

29
65.2

Fabián Ruiz

Paris Saint Germain · Spain · Midfielder

Individual34.1 / 55
Decisive15.6 / 25
Team15.5 / 20

Held

no context

30
64.6

Gabriel Magalhães

Arsenal · Brazil · Defender

Individual35.0 / 55
Decisive16.6 / 25
Team13.0 / 20

Held

no context

Head to head

Compare the cases, not just the totals.

See where one candidate creates separation—and where the other has the stronger Ballon d’Or argument.

Retrodictions

Reopen football’s biggest debates.

See the validation gate